25th Jan 2013

STOR-i Forum

Lab2 PSC, 10:00-10:30

Modelling Drought in Southern Africa with Extreme Value Theory

Droughts can cause widespread disruption by decimating agriculture, communities and economies. According to the ReliefWeb website there are six major ongoing situations relating to drought and associated food shortages. A current drought in Lesotho is affecting 725,000 people after only 32% of the average annual harvest was produced in 2012. Such events are coming under increasing scrutiny as the Inter-Governmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) looks to publish its next major report on climate change in 2013.

During this forum, methods for modelling the spatial extent of drought will be discussed. In particular the use of Extreme Value Theory in a multivariate setting will be highlighted. Techniques for modelling extremal dependence can provide insight into the links between the strength of an event and its spatial extent. The modelling strategy will be demonstrated with reference to global climate model data over southern Africa.

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